Friday 6 April 2007

Viva la revolución? - Does the Cuban revolution have the cohesion to outlive Fidel Castro?

Regardless of who you choose to believe about the status of Fidel Castro’s health; either the US Government and anti-Castro émigrés or the Cuban Government and the Fidel Castro supporters within and beyond Cuba, it’s undeniable that Castro is in the twilight of his life at 80. Castro’s tenure as one of the longest serving heads of state in the world is likely to end sooner rather than later. With Fidel Castro having ceded power to his brother Raul Castro on 31 July 2006, it’s arguable that the elder of the two siblings may not return to power in the same capacity that he previously performed his presidential duties. Indeed, Fidel Castro may not return to power at all.

With the US Government, the Latin American bloc, commentators of the region and of course Cubans, all eagerly speculating on life after Castro, it begs the question if the Cuban revolution can continue without Castro at the helm. Will the revolution end with Castro or as Castro et al would have you believe, will the revolution live forever?

In 2006, a US envoy to Cuba held talks with Cuban officials. The US envoy, and many commentators, optimistically believed the talks could be the embryonic start of a new era in the two states’ frosty relationship. Yet upon their return to the US, the envoy conveyed that such optimism was somewhat premature given their talks with Cuban officials. According to the envoy, the Cuban officials were very reticent when it came to discussing any possible economic or political changes in Cuba. Old habits die hard and it would appear that change is not on any agenda for the Cuban Government.

Ultimately, the hegemony and longevity of the current political regime in Cuba prefigures life after Castro. Herein lies the answer to the question of the extent of cohesion to the revolution. Moreoever, is there any cohesion to the revolution in Castro’s 21st century Cuba? On a recent trip to Cuba, I found myself questioning this.

The cult of the personality is apparent in Cuba. Billboards displaying Castro’s image and banners celebrating his 80th birthday are still present from the planned celebrations last year. Castro himself was unable to attend these celebrations due to poor health.

Castro clearly personifies the revolution but a widespread adulation for him is far from perceptible. One could conjecture that the present day Cuban society, particularly the younger generation, don’t relate to Castro nor the revolution. To them, the regime of Batista is a distant history lesson. They therefore lack any reference upon which to perceive the current regime as an improvement, and a desired one at that. Instead, many Cubans yearn for a change that Castro’s Cuba cannot and will not offer them.

Prior to visiting Cuba, I was unsure what to expect with regard to support for Castro. Of course, he has his supporters and they are visible. The older generation, who may remember a time of vast social and economic inequalities and a lack of basic provisions that in today’s Cuba are readily available, are content with the current regime to say the least. They value the country’s literacy rate, the free healthcare and the provision of homes. And in many instances they attribute this to Castro and close their tales of laud for the regime with an exclamation of ‘Viva la revolucíon!’ Yet this support is not widespread.

Many of the younger generation are not as compelled to share the appreciation for Castro that is shown by many of their elders. This is largely attributed to their increasing awareness of the wider world. Furthermore, they possess an intelligence that is uncharacteristic for many developing countries where the provision of basic education is not present. However, most Cubans do not realise how fortunate they are to possess the minds upon which to opine their circumstances as below par by western standards. It is this intelligence and awareness that provides them with the ability to critique life in Cuba and to subsequently criticize it. And along with the criticism is a covert yet noticeable disdain for Castro. It appears that for both Castro and many Cubans, education has been a gift and a curse.

Interaction with tourists and the internet, access to which is limited due to the high costs, ensures Cuba is not entirely closed off from the west. CNN and other US channels are shown in hotels and, albeit limitedly, Cubans are aware of a world beyond their own shores; a world which many of them are keen to embrace. Those who glimpsed my iPod were fascinated at this small device and upon asking how much it cost, were further intrigued as to how this was an affordable item.

Consumerism and communism cannot co-exist if the two retain their core principles. In this instance, some might argue this creates a dichotomy of the iPod era vs Castro’s Cuba. The iPod era might not have won over everyone but it certainly has its supporters. In 2006, the Bush Administration approved an $80 million fund to support Cuba’s ‘transition to democracy’. Beyond orthodox political efforts, the US is likely to employ consumerism as a tactic in showing what the west has to offer under a democratic regime. Whilst this is an unfounded and idealist notion in itself, there are those in Cuba that yearn for consumerism over communism.

Conversely, there are those that don’t succumb to the allure of the trappings of capitalism. Those that are content with life in Cuba have no reason to oppose the regime. These are the individuals that will toe the line, and for now, will safeguard the revolution.

Taking the locals I spoke to as a microcosm of Cuban society, it would suggest that any cohesion to the revolution is rapidly being eroded. The reality of Cuba is that whilst everyone may have a home, it is often overcrowded with many generations including married couples. There is the provision of healthcare but the US embargo has an inevitable impact on the availability of pharmaceuticals. And whilst the revolution ensured the aforementioned would be available as free for all, Cubans must still find the money to purchase food. A low wage, particularly for those outside the tourism industry where tips can be assured to healthily supplement low pay, won’t go far. Not surprisingly, for many Cubans it’s hard to support a regime where their ability to make money for basic needs, not to mention basic luxuries, is constrained.

Free market ideas clearly go against the principles of communism. Yet in recent years, the Cuban Government have loosened state control and free market ideas have crept into Cuba’s economy with one proviso – the Government want a piece of the pie and a large slice at that. Being that Cuba is a communist state, this is hardly surprising.

Casa particulares are a popular alternative to hotels around the island and an example of Cuba’s changing economy. The scheme of casa particulares enables Cubans to rent rooms in their homes to tourists for a price that suits the pocket of the budget conscious traveller. In exchange, the casa owners pay a monthly fee to the Government to grant them this privilege. Similarly, paladares, non-state operated restaurants or eateries, have become popular for their Cuban owners and tourists alike. Again, operation of a paladare is in exchange for a tax to the Government. This tax may seem fair when compared to the tax that most individuals and businesses in the capitalist west are subject to. But this is where the problem lies – Cuba isn’t a capitalist state and many Cubans I spoke to considered these taxes to be unjust. One local bluntly told me it was unfair. Perhaps the revolution is 'muy caro'?

Illegal practice of free market ideas is punishable. Nonetheless, I encountered many Cubans willing to take this chance. For many it was because operating legally wasn’t deemed financially viable. However, I suspect that some I spoke to merely sought to circumvent the state’s ‘unfair’ taxation.

Cuba has a thriving black market. I met one local who made a living for himself this way and visiting his well-furnished home, he clearly did well from it. He told me how he had previously lost his home for illegally operating a casa and he clearly resented the Government. He spoke of his disdain for the regime and albeit not with hostility, for Castro. From others I spoke to, his tale was not unique either.

Based on my encounters with local Cubans, it’s hard to see the cohesion to the revolution having much more longevity; that is if it exists in modern day Cuba at all. Many Cubans essentially aren’t buying into communism and Castro’s regime. The romanticism that can be opined as intrinsic to Castro’s regime is becoming increasingly apparent to Cubans and from this realisation stems a frustration for the regime and Castro himself.

Indubitably, cult of the personality does play a role in Cuba, as it has done for the duration of Castro’s leadership to date. Without Castro at the helm, there are no guarantees that this will signal the end of the revolution. However, without the man himself, the revolution may never be the same again.
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