Sunday 10 May 2015

Mayweather vs Pacquiao II - the only fight that makes sense for Mayweather

With the exception of Manny Pacquiao, the consensus of his fight with Floyd Mayweather was that the judges were right to award Mayweather the W. Even with Pacquiao's seemingly retrospective complaint of a shoulder injury (which he failed to disclose beforehand), there wasn't any controversy surrounding the result. While I expected Pacquiao's work rate to be higher, I still predicted a chess-like victory for Mayweather (admittedly I thought it would be via a split rather than unanimous decision). Overall, it was a clear win for Mayweather, successfully taking him to 48-0.

So what now for Money? Mayweather has one more fight under his contract with Showtime after which he's claimed he'll retire. But of more interest is who his 49th opponent will be. And there is no one other than Pacquiao who makes sense for Mayweather to fight in what would be a money-spinner (no pun intended) rematch.

Mayweather initially seemed open to the idea of a rematch but he’s since gone back on that, claiming he has no interest on account of Pacquiao using his shoulder injury as an excuse for defeat and being a sore loser. Nevertheless, despite his utterances (which I suspect could just be hyperbole), a rematch is the sensible route for Mayweather.

Mayweather vs Pacquiao was billed as the fight of our generation. It was never going to be akin to the ferocious, epic battle that was Hagler vs Hearns – arguably the most exhilarating three rounds in contemporary boxing history. Rather, it was always going to be a defensive masterclass from Mayweather that would be appreciated by boxing purists but perhaps leaving more casual fans with their thirst for a legendary barnstormer unquenched. Though would that stop the rematch generating huge amounts of revenue? Absolutely not.

Commercially and for credibility, Mayweather has few options if he wants another huge fight. Imagine the press conference for a subsequent fight that isn't against Pacquiao. Mayweather's sat at the dais flanked by his father/trainer Floyd Mayweather Sr and Leonard Ellerbe. Then, the inevitable question from a journalist: "is this fight harder than your fight with Pacquiao?". Whatever his response, Mayweather will know the answer is no. Fighting a lesser opponent for his swansong fight provides little credibility for Mayweather and will merely add to the common assertion that he cherry picks his opponents to fight on his terms when and how it suits him. That isn't to say there aren't top draw opponents for Mayweather as there are. Nonetheless, if there's a risk they might take his '0', he'll undoubtedly give them a wide berth.

Amir Khan would be a big name opponent who Mayweather could KO with his reckless defence when drawn into a scrap and on account of him being notoriously chinny. Although his speed could cause Mayweather manageable yet unwanted problems. Despite being solidly legitimate opponents, Kell Brook and Keith Thurman aren't quite big enough names internationally and beyond boxing circles. And neither is another mooted fighter, Gennady Golovkin (it's a match-up I find highly unlikely). In the case of the latter, Mayweather would only take that fight if GGG dropped to a disadvantageous catch weight and even then GGG would be an incredibly dangerous opponent which we know Mayweather is averse to. Who else provides a fight that provides credibility and a reduced risk (in the knowledge that he’s already defeated him)? Only Pacquiao himself. Furthermore, he also provides the most commercially sensible option which is a huge factor for Mayweather.

Throughout his career, Mayweather has earned gargantuan amounts of money from his fights; none more so than his fight against Pacquiao. Mayweather has an often crass penchant for money that gave rise to his moniker ‘Money’ and his spending habits match that. After his return to the sport in 2009 following his ‘retirement’, it was rumoured that Mayweather had racked up huge gambling debts and by his own admission, he has a penchant to 'bet heavy' on sports. Like any gambler, he’s sustained some loses – and Mayweather’s gambling loses aren’t going to be insignificant with the way he gambles. After all, that wouldn’t be The Money Team way.

Based on his ostentatious and extravagant spending, and his gambling to boot, Mayweather needs to maximise his income before retirement. Beyond boxing, he has no apparent revenue streams that even come close to his fight income. Mayweather Promotions, like many vanity promotion outfits that went before them, may struggle to garner the same attention once Mayweather has retired. Despite his huge popularity amongst boxing fans, Mayweather’s history of domestic violence and his crass materialism doesn’t make him an obvious choice for big brand family friendly endorsements either. And given his spending habits, prudence seemingly isn’t an attribute he possesses either.

Mayweather needs to decelerate his haemorrhaging of cash to at least stave off financial problems in retirement. And if Mayweather’s final fight in his contract with Showtime will indeed be his final fight, he therefore needs an epic payday. Commercially, no fight can top his fight with Pacquiao.

Admittedly, a rematch wouldn’t bring much new to the table in terms of the fight and probably the result. Nor would it necessarily generate the same levels of interest given the first fight was a masterclass rather than a tear-up. But any other fight for both Mayweather and Pacquiao would be a retrograde step in terms of opponent and revenue.

Pacquiao recently had his surgery for his shoulder injury and is reported to be out of the ring until mid-2016. By then, he will not have fought for the best part of a year and may want a warm up fight to lose any ring rust. That’d mean a fight with Mayweather might not be for up to 18 months and Mayweather may not be willing to wait that long. However, if Mayweather fights on, a rematch with Pacquiao is the fight that makes the most sense before he finally hangs up his gloves.
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